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Sabadell II vs Mollerussa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Mollerussa
Mollerussa
9/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II35%
×Draw28%
Mollerussa37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
1.19
Mollerussa
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Mollerussa
1.04

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Mollerussa
1.55

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Mollerussa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Mollerussa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
63%
Sabadell II or Mollerussa
72%
Draw or Mollerussa
65%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
15%
Mollerussa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
70%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
33%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
12%
Mollerussa 1+ goals
71%
Mollerussa 2+ goals
35%
Mollerussa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
49%
Mollerussa (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Mollerussa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Mollerussa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mollerussa attack 1.04 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sabadell II scores more
35%
level
28%
Mollerussa scores more
37%

Mollerussa at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mollerussa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Mollerussa

Sabadell II and Mollerussa drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.