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Sabadell II vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
4/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 31Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II33%
×Draw28%
Cerdanyola del Vallès39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
1.13
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.25

Cerdanyola del Vallès creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 77 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
61%
Sabadell II or Cerdanyola del Vallès
72%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
67%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
13%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
68%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
31%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
11%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
71%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
36%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
46%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.13

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sabadell II scores more
33%
level
28%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
39%

Cerdanyola del Vallès at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Cerdanyola del Vallès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Cerdanyola del Vallès

Cerdanyola del Vallès beat Sabadell II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on April 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadi de la Nova Creu Alta in Sabadell.