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Sabadell II vs Atlètic Lleida — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Sabadell II
Sabadell II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlètic Lleida
Atlètic Lleida
9/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 4Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sabadell II22%
×Draw26%
Atlètic Lleida52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabadell II
0.88
Atlètic Lleida
1.53

Atlètic Lleida creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sabadell II
0.82
Atlètic Lleida
1.65

allows per match

Sabadell II
1.41
Atlètic Lleida
0.94

finishing

Sabadell II+0.00on par
Atlètic Lleida+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabadell II ↓

Atlètic Lleida →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sabadell II or draw
48%
Sabadell II or Atlètic Lleida
74%
Draw or Atlètic Lleida
78%

Winning margin

Sabadell II wins by 2+
7%
Atlètic Lleida wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Sabadell II 1+ goals
59%
Sabadell II 2+ goals
22%
Sabadell II 3+ goals
6%
Atlètic Lleida 1+ goals
78%
Atlètic Lleida 2+ goals
45%
Atlètic Lleida 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sabadell II (draw refunded)
29%
Atlètic Lleida (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabadell II at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Atlètic Lleida away — creates 1.65, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabadell II attack 0.82 + Atlètic Lleida defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.88

Atlètic Lleida attack 1.65 + Sabadell II defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sabadell II scores more
22%
level
26%
Atlètic Lleida scores more
52%

Atlètic Lleida at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Atlètic Lleida will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabadell II vs Atlètic Lleida

Sabadell II beat Atlètic Lleida 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Camp Municipal de Futbol del Poliesportiu Olímpia in Sabadell.