Saarbrücken U19 2–1 Unterhaching U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Unterhaching U19

Y. Flausse 70'

Y. Ernst 19'

T. Obermeier 74'

4/3/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 18FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1933%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching U1945%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchUnterhaching U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.89

Saarbrücken U19

1.58

Unterhaching U19

1.89

Unterhaching U19 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

1.21

creates per match

1.33

2.45

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Unterhaching U19

1.33

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Unterhaching U19

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Unterhaching U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Unterhaching U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

55%

Saarbrücken U19 or Unterhaching U19

78%

Draw or Unterhaching U19

67%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

16%

Unterhaching U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

79%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

47%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

21%

Unterhaching U19 1+ goals

85%

Unterhaching U19 2+ goals

56%

Unterhaching U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

42%

Unterhaching U19 (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Unterhaching U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.96 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Unterhaching U19 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.58

Unterhaching U19 attack 1.33 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

33%

level

22%

Unterhaching U19 scores more

45%

Unterhaching U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Unterhaching U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

Y. Ernst

31'

A. Lazzano← D. Cullmann

55'

J. Minke← L. Östlund

66'

S. Burke← L. Bucher

67'

Y. Flausse← F. Geißler

70'

Y. Flausse

73'

N. Nollenberger← A. Hirtlreiter

74'

T. Obermeier

81'

T. Weber← A. Lazzano

Saarbrücken

Unterhaching

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

31'▲A. Lazzano←▼D. Cullmann

55'▲J. Minke←▼L. Östlund

67'▲Y. Flausse←▼F. Geißler

81'▲T. Weber←▼A. Lazzano

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

LazzanoMinkeFlausseWeberGauWeisGebhard

Manager: S. Teichmann

66'▲S. Burke←▼L. Bucher

73'▲N. Nollenberger←▼A. Hirtlreiter

Unterhaching U19 substitutes

BurkeNollenbergerFröhlichHolzmeierGottmeierBarakatManole