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Saarbrücken U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Saarbrücken U19
Saarbrücken U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Heidenheim U19
Heidenheim U19
8/10/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1926%
×Draw21%
Heidenheim U1953%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saarbrücken U19
1.40
Heidenheim U19
2.06

Heidenheim U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 71 away

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19
1.21
Heidenheim U19
1.68

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19
2.45
Heidenheim U19
1.58

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par
Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw
47%
Saarbrücken U19 or Heidenheim U19
79%
Draw or Heidenheim U19
74%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+
11%
Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals
75%
Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals
41%
Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals
17%
Heidenheim U19 1+ goals
87%
Heidenheim U19 2+ goals
61%
Heidenheim U19 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.58 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.40

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.68 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more
26%
level
21%
Heidenheim U19 scores more
53%

Heidenheim U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 0–4 Heidenheim U19

Heidenheim U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.