Saarbrücken U19 0–3 Freiburg U19: Result & Stats

Saarbrücken U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Freiburg U19

G. Pellegrino 69'

D. Au Yeong 22', 6'

9/11/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 3FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1927%

×Draw21%

Freiburg U1952%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchFreiburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

2.10

Saarbrücken U19

1.45

Freiburg U19

2.10

Freiburg U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 67 away

1.21

creates per match

1.76

2.45

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Freiburg U19

1.76

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Freiburg U19

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

48%

Saarbrücken U19 or Freiburg U19

79%

Draw or Freiburg U19

73%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

12%

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

77%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

42%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

18%

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.45

Freiburg U19 attack 1.76 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

27%

level

21%

Freiburg U19 scores more

52%

Freiburg U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

D. Au Yeong

22'

D. Au Yeong

46'

M. Hülsenbusch← L. Bega

55'

E. Metaj← I. Smith

65'

Y. Flausse← L. Östlund

65'

G. Pellegrino← J. Ribeiro

67'

G. Bunga Capitao← R. Pfauser

69'

G. Pellegrino

76'

A. Lazzano← T. Wachall

83'

M. Wörner← D. Au Yeong

86'

F. Geißler← S. Maas

Saarbrücken

Freiburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

55'▲E. Metaj←▼I. Smith

65'▲Y. Flausse←▼L. Östlund

76'▲A. Lazzano←▼T. Wachall

86'▲F. Geißler←▼S. Maas

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

MetajFlausseLazzanoGeißlerHartzMagarKrämer

Manager: F. Valente

46'▲M. Hülsenbusch←▼L. Bega

65'▲G. Pellegrino←▼J. Ribeiro

67'▲G. Bunga Capitao←▼R. Pfauser

83'▲M. Wörner←▼D. Au Yeong

Freiburg U19 substitutes

HülsenbuschPellegrinoCapitaoWörnerEchnerBleiseBrüning