Saarbrücken U19 1–5 Bayern München U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 4

Bayern München U19

A. Lazzano 69'

Y. Kabadayı 58'

B. Neziri 45+1', 33'

A. Ibrahimović 37'

Y. Ernst 16' (OG)

9/25/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 5FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Saarbrücken U1921%

×Draw18%

Bayern München U1961%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.54

Saarbrücken U19

1.44

Bayern München U19

2.54

Bayern München U19 creates 76% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 72 away

1.21

creates per match

2.63

2.45

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

39%

Saarbrücken U19 or Bayern München U19

82%

Draw or Bayern München U19

79%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

9%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

76%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

42%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

18%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

92%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

72%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.44

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

21%

level

18%

Bayern München U19 scores more

61%

Bayern München U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

Y. ErnstOwn goal

33'

B. Neziri

37'

A. Ibrahimović

45+1'

B. Neziri

57'

A. Lazzano← T. Wachall

57'

M. Wenig← A. Pavlović

57'

P. Wanner← A. Ibrahimović

58'

Y. Kabadayı

65'

J. Magar← S. Maas

65'

B. Dibrani← Y. Kabadayı

65'

D. Jonathans← G. Mamedova

69'

A. Lazzano

75'

T. Weber← L. Weis

80'

Y. Flausse← I. Smith

Saarbrücken

Bayern

⚽2

⚽

▼

Ibrahimov

▼

Pavlović

Sanyang

⚽

▼

▼

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

57'▲A. Lazzano←▼T. Wachall

65'▲J. Magar←▼S. Maas

75'▲T. Weber←▼L. Weis

80'▲Y. Flausse←▼I. Smith

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

LazzanoMagarWeberFlausseGeißlerBöffelGau

Manager: D. Galm

57'▲M. Wenig←▼A. Pavlović

57'▲P. Wanner←▼A. Ibrahimović

65'▲B. Dibrani←▼Y. Kabadayı

65'▲D. Jonathans←▼G. Mamedova

Bayern München U19 substitutes

WenigWannerDibraniJonathansBallisMorrisonNsanzimana

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 1–5 Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 25, 2021.

Goals: Y. Ernst (16' o.g.), B. Neziri (33', 45+1'), A. Ibrahimović (37'), Y. Kabadayı (58'), A. Lazzano (69').

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.

Saarbrücken U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Saarbrücken U19 1–5 Bayern München U19