Saarbrücken U19 1–2 Astoria Walldorf U19

Saarbrücken U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Astoria Walldorf U19

N. Petrov 41'

L. Nagelbach 52', 31'

10/24/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 4FC Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Saarbrücken U1936%

×Draw22%

Astoria Walldorf U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saarbrücken U19Expected goals in this matchAstoria Walldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.85

Saarbrücken U19

1.69

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.85

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 23 away

1.21

creates per match

1.26

2.45

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Saarbrücken U19

1.21

Astoria Walldorf U19

1.26

allows per match

Saarbrücken U19

2.45

Astoria Walldorf U19

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saarbrücken U19+0.00on par

Astoria Walldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saarbrücken U19 ↓

Astoria Walldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Saarbrücken U19 or draw

58%

Saarbrücken U19 or Astoria Walldorf U19

78%

Draw or Astoria Walldorf U19

64%

Winning margin

Saarbrücken U19 wins by 2+

18%

Astoria Walldorf U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Saarbrücken U19 1+ goals

82%

Saarbrücken U19 2+ goals

50%

Saarbrücken U19 3+ goals

24%

Astoria Walldorf U19 1+ goals

84%

Astoria Walldorf U19 2+ goals

55%

Astoria Walldorf U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Saarbrücken U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Astoria Walldorf U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saarbrücken U19 at home — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 38 matches

Astoria Walldorf U19 away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.17 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saarbrücken U19 attack 1.21 + Astoria Walldorf U19 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.69

Astoria Walldorf U19 attack 1.26 + Saarbrücken U19 defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saarbrücken U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

Astoria Walldorf U19 scores more

42%

Astoria Walldorf U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Astoria Walldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

L. Nagelbach

41'

N. Petrov

52'

E. Imeraj← F. Recktenwald

52'

L. Nagelbach

62'

D. Sengül← Y. Rastetter

64'

72'

75'

78'

86'

D. Dervis← L. Nagelbach

89'

K. Gabka← N. Petrov

Saarbrücken

Astoria

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: E. Melunovic

52'▲E. Imeraj←▼F. Recktenwald

64'▲S. Maas←▼T. Wachall

72'▲A. Yilmaz←▼H. Dorst

89'▲K. Gabka←▼N. Petrov

Saarbrücken U19 substitutes

ImerajMaasYilmazGabkaLillSimonHoffmann

Manager: Roberto Pinto

62'▲D. Sengül←▼Y. Rastetter

75'▲S. Noci←▼J. boziaris

78'▲N. Mehr←▼F. Geigle

86'▲D. Dervis←▼L. Nagelbach

Astoria Walldorf U19 substitutes

SengülNociMehrDervisMerzDietrichSchmidt

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19

Astoria Walldorf U19 beat Saarbrücken U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on October 24, 2020.

Goals: L. Nagelbach (31', 52'), N. Petrov (41').

The match was played at FC Sportfeld in Saarbrücken.

Saarbrücken U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Saarbrücken U19 vs Astoria Walldorf U19