Słowianin 2–1 Górnik Polkowice: Result & Stats

Słowianin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Górnik Polkowice

F. Barski 79'

D. Krakowski 58'

B. Rymaniak 57'

3/21/2026

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 23Boisko Wolibòrz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Słowianin35%

×Draw25%

Górnik Polkowice40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SłowianinExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.52

Słowianin

1.42

Górnik Polkowice

1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 51 away

1.50

creates per match

1.55

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Słowianin

1.50

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Słowianin

1.50

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Słowianin+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Słowianin ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Słowianin or draw

60%

Słowianin or Górnik Polkowice

75%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

65%

Winning margin

Słowianin wins by 2+

16%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Słowianin 1+ goals

76%

Słowianin 2+ goals

41%

Słowianin 3+ goals

17%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

78%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

45%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Słowianin (draw refunded)

47%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Słowianin at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 16 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Słowianin attack 1.50 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Słowianin defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Słowianin scores more

35%

level

25%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

40%

Górnik Polkowice at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

B. Rymaniak

58'

D. Krakowski

79'

F. Barski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff