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Səbail vs Sumqayıt — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Sumqayıt
Sumqayıt
5/23/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 36ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Səbail37%
×Draw27%
Sumqayıt36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
1.22
Sumqayıt
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 108 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Sumqayıt
0.94

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Sumqayıt
1.47

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Sumqayıt+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Sumqayıt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
64%
Səbail or Sumqayıt
73%
Draw or Sumqayıt
63%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
16%
Sumqayıt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
70%
Səbail 2+ goals
34%
Səbail 3+ goals
12%
Sumqayıt 1+ goals
70%
Sumqayıt 2+ goals
34%
Sumqayıt 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
50%
Sumqayıt (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Sumqayıt away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Sumqayıt defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.22

Sumqayıt attack 0.94 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Səbail scores more
37%
level
27%
Sumqayıt scores more
36%

Səbail at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Səbail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Səbail vs Sumqayıt

Sumqayıt beat Səbail 4-1 in Premyer Liqa on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.