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Səbail vs Sabah FA — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 3
Sabah FA
Sabah FA
9/22/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 7ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Səbail27%
×Draw26%
Sabah FA47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
1.07
Sabah FA
1.50

Sabah FA creates 40% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 109 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Sabah FA
1.51

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Sabah FA
1.17

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Sabah FA+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Sabah FA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
53%
Səbail or Sabah FA
74%
Draw or Sabah FA
73%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
10%
Sabah FA wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
66%
Səbail 2+ goals
29%
Səbail 3+ goals
9%
Sabah FA 1+ goals
78%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
44%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
36%
Sabah FA (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Sabah FA away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Sabah FA defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Sabah FA attack 1.51 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Səbail scores more
27%
level
26%
Sabah FA scores more
47%

Sabah FA at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Səbail vs Sabah FA

Sabah FA beat Səbail 4-2 in Premyer Liqa on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.