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Səbail vs Qarabag — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Qarabag
Qarabag
4/11/2025Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 30ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Səbail17%
×Draw23%
Qarabag60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
0.84
Qarabag
1.81

Qarabag creates 115% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 110 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Qarabag
2.15

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Qarabag
0.71

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Qarabag →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
40%
Səbail or Qarabag
77%
Draw or Qarabag
83%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
5%
Qarabag wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
57%
Səbail 2+ goals
21%
Səbail 3+ goals
5%
Qarabag 1+ goals
84%
Qarabag 2+ goals
54%
Qarabag 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
22%
Qarabag (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Qarabag away — creates 2.15, concedes 0.71 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Qarabag defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.84

Qarabag attack 2.15 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Səbail scores more
17%
level
23%
Qarabag scores more
60%

Qarabag at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Qarabag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Səbail vs Qarabag

Qarabag beat Səbail 4-1 in Premyer Liqa on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.