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Səbail vs Kapaz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Kapaz
Kapaz
4/14/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 30ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Səbail44%
×Draw26%
Kapaz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
1.46
Kapaz
1.18

Səbail creates 24% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 73 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Kapaz
0.88

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Kapaz
1.96

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Kapaz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Kapaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
69%
Səbail or Kapaz
74%
Draw or Kapaz
56%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
21%
Kapaz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
77%
Səbail 2+ goals
43%
Səbail 3+ goals
18%
Kapaz 1+ goals
69%
Kapaz 2+ goals
33%
Kapaz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
59%
Kapaz (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Kapaz away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Kapaz defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kapaz attack 0.88 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Səbail scores more
44%
level
26%
Kapaz scores more
31%

Səbail at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Səbail will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Səbail 3 – 3 Kapaz

Səbail and Kapaz drew 3-3 in Premyer Liqa on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.