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Səbail vs Araz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Səbail
Səbail
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Araz
Araz
12/7/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 16ASCO Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Səbail35%
×Draw27%
Araz37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Səbail
1.19
Araz
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 52 away

creates per match

Səbail
0.97
Araz
1.00

allows per match

Səbail
1.48
Araz
1.42

finishing

Səbail+0.00on par
Araz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Səbail ↓

Araz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Səbail or draw
63%
Səbail or Araz
73%
Draw or Araz
65%

Winning margin

Səbail wins by 2+
15%
Araz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Səbail 1+ goals
70%
Səbail 2+ goals
33%
Səbail 3+ goals
12%
Araz 1+ goals
71%
Araz 2+ goals
35%
Araz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Səbail (draw refunded)
48%
Araz (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Səbail at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.48 · 92 matches

Araz away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Səbail attack 0.97 + Araz defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.19

Araz attack 1.00 + Səbail defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Səbail scores more
35%
level
27%
Araz scores more
37%

Araz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Araz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Səbail vs Araz

Araz beat Səbail 2-0 in Premyer Liqa on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at ASCO Arena in Baku.