Rynninge 2–1 Umea FF: Result & Stats

Rynninge

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Umea FF

P. Broman 53' (OG)

Anderson 22'

A. Drammeh 84'

4/28/2019

Ettan - Norra · Round 4Grenadjärvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rynninge51%

×Draw21%

Umea FF28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RynningeExpected goals in this matchUmea FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.51

Rynninge

2.12

Umea FF

1.51

Rynninge creates 40% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 61 away

1.88

creates per match

0.84

2.19

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Rynninge

1.88

Umea FF

0.84

allows per match

Rynninge

2.19

Umea FF

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rynninge+0.00on par

Umea FF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rynninge ↓

Umea FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Rynninge or draw

72%

Rynninge or Umea FF

79%

Draw or Umea FF

49%

Winning margin

Rynninge wins by 2+

30%

Umea FF wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rynninge 1+ goals

88%

Rynninge 2+ goals

62%

Rynninge 3+ goals

35%

Umea FF 1+ goals

78%

Umea FF 2+ goals

44%

Umea FF 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Rynninge (draw refunded)

65%

Umea FF (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rynninge at home — creates 1.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Umea FF away — creates 0.84, concedes 2.36 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rynninge attack 1.88 + Umea FF defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.12

Umea FF attack 0.84 + Rynninge defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rynninge scores more

51%

level

21%

Umea FF scores more

28%

Rynninge at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rynninge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

Anderson

46'

M. Lidberg← F. Johansson

53'

P. BromanOwn goal

59'

V. Franssila← S. Oki

70'

Ludvig Marklund← M. Sundström

70'

P. Näslund← S. Friman

78'

J. Lundberg← Anderson

80'

H. Hultberg← S. Bichler-Bergenheim

84'

A. Drammeh

Rynninge

Umea

⚽

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Anderson

Springfel

59'▲V. Franssila←▼S. Oki

78'▲J. Lundberg←▼Anderson

80'▲H. Hultberg←▼S. Bichler-Bergenheim

Rynninge substitutes

FranssilaLundbergHultbergAngergårdJanssonÖzgunDiawara

Manager: A. Ghanbari

46'▲M. Lidberg←▼F. Johansson

70'▲Ludvig Marklund←▼M. Sundström

70'▲P. Näslund←▼S. Friman

Umea FF substitutes

LidbergMarklundNäslundEriksson