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Rynninge vs Trosa-Vagnhärad SK — Division 2 - Södra Svealand 2019

Rynninge
Rynninge
FT
3 – 6
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
7/7/2021Division 2 - Södra SvealandDivision 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 3Grenadjärvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rynninge38%
×Draw20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rynninge
2.13
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rynninge
1.50
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
1.26

allows per match

Rynninge
3.20
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
2.76

finishing

Rynninge+0.00on par
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rynninge ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Rynninge or draw
58%
Rynninge or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
80%
Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK
62%

Winning margin

Rynninge wins by 2+
21%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Rynninge 1+ goals
88%
Rynninge 2+ goals
63%
Rynninge 3+ goals
35%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals
89%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals
65%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Rynninge (draw refunded)
48%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rynninge at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.20 · 20 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rynninge attack 1.50 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.13

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Rynninge defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rynninge scores more
38%
level
20%
Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more
42%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Trosa-Vagnhärad SK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rynninge vs Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK beat Rynninge 6-3 in Division 2 - Södra Svealand on July 7, 2021.

The match was played at Grenadjärvallen in Örebro.