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Rydalmere Lions vs Inter Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Rydalmere Lions
Rydalmere Lions
FT
5 – 4
Inter Lions
Inter Lions
2/28/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 3Rydalmere Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Rydalmere Lions47%
×Draw23%
Inter Lions31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rydalmere Lions
1.85
Inter Lions
1.46

Rydalmere Lions creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rydalmere Lions
1.88
Inter Lions
1.53

allows per match

Rydalmere Lions
1.40
Inter Lions
1.82

finishing

Rydalmere Lions+0.00on par
Inter Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rydalmere Lions ↓

Inter Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Rydalmere Lions or draw
69%
Rydalmere Lions or Inter Lions
77%
Draw or Inter Lions
53%

Winning margin

Rydalmere Lions wins by 2+
26%
Inter Lions wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rydalmere Lions 1+ goals
84%
Rydalmere Lions 2+ goals
55%
Rydalmere Lions 3+ goals
28%
Inter Lions 1+ goals
77%
Inter Lions 2+ goals
43%
Inter Lions 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rydalmere Lions (draw refunded)
60%
Inter Lions (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rydalmere Lions at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.40 · 57 matches

Inter Lions away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.82 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rydalmere Lions attack 1.88 + Inter Lions defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.85

Inter Lions attack 1.53 + Rydalmere Lions defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rydalmere Lions scores more
47%
level
23%
Inter Lions scores more
31%

Rydalmere Lions at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rydalmere Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Rydalmere Lions 5–4 Inter Lions

Rydalmere Lions beat Inter Lions 5-4 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Rydalmere Park in Rydalmere.