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Ryazan W vs Dinamo Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2026

Ryazan W
Ryazan W
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Moskva W
Dinamo Moskva W
5/11/2024Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 9Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Ryazan W32%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Moskva W41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ryazan W
1.15
Dinamo Moskva W
1.33

Dinamo Moskva W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 44 away

creates per match

Ryazan W
0.95
Dinamo Moskva W
1.27

allows per match

Ryazan W
1.39
Dinamo Moskva W
1.34

finishing

Ryazan W+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan W ↓

Dinamo Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ryazan W or draw
59%
Ryazan W or Dinamo Moskva W
73%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva W
68%

Winning margin

Ryazan W wins by 2+
13%
Dinamo Moskva W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ryazan W 1+ goals
68%
Ryazan W 2+ goals
32%
Ryazan W 3+ goals
11%
Dinamo Moskva W 1+ goals
74%
Dinamo Moskva W 2+ goals
38%
Dinamo Moskva W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ryazan W (draw refunded)
44%
Dinamo Moskva W (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

Dinamo Moskva W away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan W attack 0.95 + Dinamo Moskva W defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.15

Dinamo Moskva W attack 1.27 + Ryazan W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ryazan W scores more
32%
level
27%
Dinamo Moskva W scores more
41%

Dinamo Moskva W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Ryazan W 2–3 Dinamo Moskva W

Dinamo Moskva W beat Ryazan W 3-2 in Supreme Division Women on May 11, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Ryazan'.