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Ryazan vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Ryazan
Ryazan
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
11/3/2020Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ryazan64%
×Draw20%
Metallurg Vidnoye16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ryazan
2.11
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.95

Ryazan creates 122% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ryazan
1.35
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Ryazan
1.13
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Ryazan+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ryazan or draw
84%
Ryazan or Metallurg Vidnoye
80%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
36%

Winning margin

Ryazan wins by 2+
40%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Ryazan 1+ goals
88%
Ryazan 2+ goals
62%
Ryazan 3+ goals
35%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
61%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
25%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ryazan (draw refunded)
80%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 92 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan attack 1.35 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.11

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Ryazan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ryazan scores more
64%
level
20%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
16%

Ryazan at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ryazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ryazan vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Ryazan beat Metallurg Vidnoye 4-0 in Second League - Group 3 on November 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Ryazan'.