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RWDM vs St. Truiden — Jupiler Pro League 2018

RWDM
RWDM
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
St. Truiden
St. Truiden
12/16/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 18Edmond Machtensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

RWDM33%
×Draw25%
St. Truiden41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RWDM
1.30
St. Truiden
1.48

St. Truiden creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 141 away

creates per match

RWDM
1.00
St. Truiden
1.16

allows per match

RWDM
1.79
St. Truiden
1.60

finishing

RWDM+0.00on par
St. Truiden+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM ↓

St. Truiden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RWDM or draw
59%
RWDM or St. Truiden
75%
Draw or St. Truiden
67%

Winning margin

RWDM wins by 2+
15%
St. Truiden wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

RWDM 1+ goals
73%
RWDM 2+ goals
37%
RWDM 3+ goals
14%
St. Truiden 1+ goals
77%
St. Truiden 2+ goals
43%
St. Truiden 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

RWDM (draw refunded)
45%
St. Truiden (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

St. Truiden away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM attack 1.00 + St. Truiden defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

St. Truiden attack 1.16 + RWDM defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RWDM scores more
33%
level
25%
St. Truiden scores more
41%

St. Truiden at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "St. Truiden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RWDM vs St. Truiden

RWDM beat St. Truiden 3-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Edmond Machtensstadion in Bruxelles.