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RWDM vs KVC Westerlo — Jupiler Pro League 2018

RWDM
RWDM
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KVC Westerlo
KVC Westerlo
10/21/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 11Edmond Machtensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

RWDM33%
×Draw25%
KVC Westerlo42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RWDM
1.36
KVC Westerlo
1.57

KVC Westerlo creates 15% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 82 away

creates per match

RWDM
1.00
KVC Westerlo
1.35

allows per match

RWDM
1.79
KVC Westerlo
1.73

finishing

RWDM+0.00on par
KVC Westerlo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM ↓

KVC Westerlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

RWDM or draw
58%
RWDM or KVC Westerlo
75%
Draw or KVC Westerlo
67%

Winning margin

RWDM wins by 2+
15%
KVC Westerlo wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

RWDM 1+ goals
74%
RWDM 2+ goals
39%
RWDM 3+ goals
16%
KVC Westerlo 1+ goals
79%
KVC Westerlo 2+ goals
46%
KVC Westerlo 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

RWDM (draw refunded)
44%
KVC Westerlo (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

KVC Westerlo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.73 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM attack 1.00 + KVC Westerlo defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

KVC Westerlo attack 1.35 + RWDM defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

RWDM scores more
33%
level
25%
KVC Westerlo scores more
42%

KVC Westerlo at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "KVC Westerlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RWDM vs KVC Westerlo

RWDM and KVC Westerlo drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Edmond Machtensstadion in Bruxelles.