RWDM 1–0 KV Mechelen: Result & Stats

RWDM

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

KV Mechelen

8/12/2023

Jupiler Pro League · Round 3Edmond Machtensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

RWDM34%

×Draw25%

KV Mechelen41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RWDMExpected goals in this matchKV Mechelen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.52

RWDM

1.36

KV Mechelen

1.52

KV Mechelen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 130 away

1.00

creates per match

1.25

1.79

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

RWDM

1.00

KV Mechelen

1.25

allows per match

RWDM

1.79

KV Mechelen

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RWDM+0.00on par

KV Mechelen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM ↓

KV Mechelen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

RWDM or draw

59%

RWDM or KV Mechelen

75%

Draw or KV Mechelen

66%

Winning margin

RWDM wins by 2+

15%

KV Mechelen wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

RWDM 1+ goals

74%

RWDM 2+ goals

39%

RWDM 3+ goals

16%

KV Mechelen 1+ goals

78%

KV Mechelen 2+ goals

45%

KV Mechelen 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

RWDM (draw refunded)

45%

KV Mechelen (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

KV Mechelen away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.72 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM attack 1.00 + KV Mechelen defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.36

KV Mechelen attack 1.25 + RWDM defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

RWDM scores more

34%

level

25%

KV Mechelen scores more

41%

KV Mechelen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "KV Mechelen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff