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RWDM vs Charleroi — Jupiler Pro League 2018

RWDM
RWDM
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Charleroi
Charleroi
12/2/2023Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 16Edmond Machtensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

RWDM31%
×Draw25%
Charleroi44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RWDM
1.25
Charleroi
1.56

Charleroi creates 25% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 143 away

creates per match

RWDM
1.00
Charleroi
1.34

allows per match

RWDM
1.79
Charleroi
1.50

finishing

RWDM+0.00on par
Charleroi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RWDM ↓

Charleroi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

RWDM or draw
56%
RWDM or Charleroi
75%
Draw or Charleroi
69%

Winning margin

RWDM wins by 2+
13%
Charleroi wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

RWDM 1+ goals
71%
RWDM 2+ goals
36%
RWDM 3+ goals
13%
Charleroi 1+ goals
79%
Charleroi 2+ goals
46%
Charleroi 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

RWDM (draw refunded)
41%
Charleroi (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RWDM at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Charleroi away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.50 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RWDM attack 1.00 + Charleroi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Charleroi attack 1.34 + RWDM defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

RWDM scores more
31%
level
25%
Charleroi scores more
44%

Charleroi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Charleroi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: RWDM vs Charleroi

RWDM and Charleroi drew 0-0 in Jupiler Pro League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Edmond Machtensstadion in Bruxelles.