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Rwanda vs Madagascar — Friendlies 2026

Rwanda
Rwanda
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 1
Madagascar
Madagascar
3/25/2024FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Kianja Barea Mahamasina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rwanda60%
×Draw24%
Madagascar16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rwanda
1.65
Madagascar
0.70

Rwanda creates 136% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Rwanda
1.29
Madagascar
1.10

allows per match

Rwanda
0.29
Madagascar
2.00

finishing

Rwanda+0.00on par
Madagascar+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwanda ↓

Madagascar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rwanda or draw
84%
Rwanda or Madagascar
76%
Draw or Madagascar
40%

Winning margin

Rwanda wins by 2+
33%
Madagascar wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rwanda 1+ goals
81%
Rwanda 2+ goals
49%
Rwanda 3+ goals
23%
Madagascar 1+ goals
50%
Madagascar 2+ goals
16%
Madagascar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rwanda (draw refunded)
79%
Madagascar (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwanda at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Madagascar away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwanda attack 1.29 + Madagascar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Madagascar attack 1.10 + Rwanda defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rwanda scores more
60%
level
24%
Madagascar scores more
16%

Rwanda at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rwanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rwanda vs Madagascar

Rwanda beat Madagascar 2-0 in Friendlies on March 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Kianja Barea Mahamasina in Antananarivo.