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Rwanda vs Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Rwanda
Rwanda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Guinea
Guinea
1/6/2022FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade Amahoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rwanda56%
×Draw30%
Guinea15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rwanda
1.28
Guinea
0.51

Rwanda creates 151% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rwanda
1.29
Guinea
0.73

allows per match

Rwanda
0.29
Guinea
1.27

finishing

Rwanda+0.00on par
Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwanda ↓

Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rwanda or draw
85%
Rwanda or Guinea
70%
Draw or Guinea
44%

Winning margin

Rwanda wins by 2+
27%
Guinea wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Rwanda 1+ goals
72%
Rwanda 2+ goals
37%
Rwanda 3+ goals
14%
Guinea 1+ goals
40%
Guinea 2+ goals
9%
Guinea 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Rwanda (draw refunded)
79%
Guinea (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwanda at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.29 · 7 matches

Guinea away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwanda attack 1.29 + Guinea defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.28

Guinea attack 0.73 + Rwanda defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rwanda scores more
56%
level
30%
Guinea scores more
15%

Rwanda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rwanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rwanda 0 – 2 Guinea

Guinea beat Rwanda 2-0 in Friendlies on January 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Amahoro in Kigali.