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Rwamagana City vs Sunrise — National Soccer League 2019

Rwamagana City
Rwamagana City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sunrise
Sunrise
3/4/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 22Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rwamagana City41%
×Draw30%
Sunrise28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rwamagana City
1.14
Sunrise
0.89

Rwamagana City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rwamagana City
0.84
Sunrise
0.98

allows per match

Rwamagana City
0.80
Sunrise
1.43

finishing

Rwamagana City+0.00on par
Sunrise+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwamagana City ↓

Sunrise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rwamagana City or draw
72%
Rwamagana City or Sunrise
70%
Draw or Sunrise
59%

Winning margin

Rwamagana City wins by 2+
17%
Sunrise wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rwamagana City 1+ goals
68%
Rwamagana City 2+ goals
32%
Rwamagana City 3+ goals
11%
Sunrise 1+ goals
59%
Sunrise 2+ goals
22%
Sunrise 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)
59%
Sunrise (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwamagana City at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Sunrise away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.43 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwamagana City attack 0.84 + Sunrise defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sunrise attack 0.98 + Rwamagana City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rwamagana City scores more
41%
level
30%
Sunrise scores more
28%

Rwamagana City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rwamagana City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rwamagana City vs Sunrise

Rwamagana City beat Sunrise 2-0 in National Soccer League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Ngoma Stadium in Kibungo.