Rwamagana City 2–0 Etoile de l'Est: Result & Stats

Rwamagana City

FT

2 – 0

Etoile de l'Est

2/24/2024

National Soccer League · Round 22Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rwamagana City48%

×Draw30%

Etoile de l'Est22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rwamagana CityExpected goals in this matchEtoile de l'Est

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.75

Rwamagana City

1.25

Etoile de l'Est

0.75

Rwamagana City creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

0.84

creates per match

0.70

0.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rwamagana City

0.84

Etoile de l'Est

0.70

allows per match

Rwamagana City

0.80

Etoile de l'Est

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwamagana City ↓

Etoile de l'Est →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Rwamagana City or draw

78%

Rwamagana City or Etoile de l'Est

70%

Draw or Etoile de l'Est

52%

Winning margin

Rwamagana City wins by 2+

22%

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rwamagana City 1+ goals

71%

Rwamagana City 2+ goals

36%

Rwamagana City 3+ goals

13%

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

53%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

17%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)

68%

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwamagana City at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwamagana City attack 0.84 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.25

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Rwamagana City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rwamagana City scores more

48%

level

30%

Etoile de l'Est scores more

22%

Rwamagana City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rwamagana City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff