Rwamagana City 1–0 Etincelles: Result & Stats

Rwamagana City

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Etincelles

T. Shaka 3'

3/1/2025

National Soccer League · Round 19Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rwamagana City43%

×Draw30%

Etincelles27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rwamagana CityExpected goals in this matchEtincelles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.88

Rwamagana City

1.20

Etincelles

0.88

Rwamagana City creates 36% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 96 away

0.84

creates per match

0.95

0.80

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Rwamagana City

0.84

Etincelles

0.95

allows per match

Rwamagana City

0.80

Etincelles

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rwamagana City+0.00on par

Etincelles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwamagana City ↓

Etincelles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Rwamagana City or draw

73%

Rwamagana City or Etincelles

70%

Draw or Etincelles

57%

Winning margin

Rwamagana City wins by 2+

19%

Etincelles wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rwamagana City 1+ goals

70%

Rwamagana City 2+ goals

34%

Rwamagana City 3+ goals

12%

Etincelles 1+ goals

59%

Etincelles 2+ goals

22%

Etincelles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)

62%

Etincelles (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwamagana City at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

Etincelles away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwamagana City attack 0.84 + Etincelles defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.20

Etincelles attack 0.95 + Rwamagana City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rwamagana City scores more

43%

level

30%

Etincelles scores more

27%

Rwamagana City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rwamagana City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

T. Shaka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff