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Rwamagana City vs AS Kigali — National Soccer League 2019

Rwamagana City
Rwamagana City
FT
0 – 0
AS Kigali
AS Kigali
12/12/2023National Soccer LeagueNational Soccer League · Round 15Ngoma Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rwamagana City34%
×Draw33%
AS Kigali33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rwamagana City
0.90
AS Kigali
0.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 94 away

creates per match

Rwamagana City
0.84
AS Kigali
0.97

allows per match

Rwamagana City
0.80
AS Kigali
0.96

finishing

Rwamagana City+0.00on par
AS Kigali+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rwamagana City ↓

AS Kigali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Rwamagana City or draw
67%
Rwamagana City or AS Kigali
67%
Draw or AS Kigali
66%

Winning margin

Rwamagana City wins by 2+
12%
AS Kigali wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rwamagana City 1+ goals
59%
Rwamagana City 2+ goals
23%
Rwamagana City 3+ goals
6%
AS Kigali 1+ goals
59%
AS Kigali 2+ goals
22%
AS Kigali 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rwamagana City (draw refunded)
50%
AS Kigali (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rwamagana City at home — creates 0.84, concedes 0.80 · 45 matches

AS Kigali away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.96 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rwamagana City attack 0.84 + AS Kigali defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.90

AS Kigali attack 0.97 + Rwamagana City defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Rwamagana City scores more
34%
level
33%
AS Kigali scores more
33%

Rwamagana City at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Rwamagana City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rwamagana City vs AS Kigali

Rwamagana City and AS Kigali drew 0-0 in National Soccer League on December 12, 2023.

The match was played at Ngoma Stadium in Kibungo.