RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 Werder Bremen U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Werder Bremen U19

D. Burghard 85'

K. Harbering 83'

J. Imasuen 12'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 1Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1936%

×Draw22%

Werder Bremen U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchWerder Bremen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.91

RW Oberhausen U19

1.75

Werder Bremen U19

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 71 away

1.58

creates per match

2.21

1.60

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Werder Bremen U19

2.21

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Werder Bremen U19

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Werder Bremen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Werder Bremen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

58%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Werder Bremen U19

78%

Draw or Werder Bremen U19

64%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

18%

Werder Bremen U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

83%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

25%

Werder Bremen U19 1+ goals

85%

Werder Bremen U19 2+ goals

57%

Werder Bremen U19 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Werder Bremen U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Werder Bremen U19 away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.92 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Werder Bremen U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Werder Bremen U19 attack 2.21 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

36%

level

22%

Werder Bremen U19 scores more

42%

Werder Bremen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Werder Bremen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

35'

46'

62'

69'

71'

B. Mashollaj← S. Abbey

80'

D. Ayissi-Akoumba← Y. Erten

83'

K. Harbering

85'

D. Burghard

RW

Werder

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Balk

35'▲T. Böhm←▼Y. Magrouda

62'▲M. Matthes←▼A. Terzi

69'▲L. Twumasi←▼E. Özat

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

BöhmMatthesTwumasiWiggerHennemannSimakis

Manager: C. Brand

46'▲J. Dudock←▼D. Kasper

71'▲B. Mashollaj←▼S. Abbey

80'▲D. Ayissi-Akoumba←▼Y. Erten

Werder Bremen U19 substitutes

DudockMashollajAyissi-AkoumbaKäuperZeqiraj

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 Werder Bremen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Werder Bremen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

Goals: J. Imasuen (12'), K. Harbering (83'), D. Burghard (85').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–1 Werder Bremen U19