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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Preußen Münster U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
CANC
10:00
Preußen Münster U19
Preußen Münster U19
3/14/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 15Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1943%
×Draw23%
Preußen Münster U1934%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
1.82
Preußen Münster U19
1.61

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 13% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 62 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.64
Preußen Münster U19
1.63

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
Preußen Münster U19
2.00

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
66%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Preußen Münster U19
77%
Draw or Preußen Münster U19
57%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
23%
Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
84%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
54%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
27%
Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals
80%
Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals
48%
Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.82

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.63 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
43%
level
23%
Preußen Münster U19 scores more
34%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: RW Oberhausen U19 host Preußen Münster U19

March 14, 2021: RW Oberhausen U19 take on Preußen Münster U19 in U19 Bundesliga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

RW Oberhausen U19 host Preußen Münster U19 at Stadion Niederrhein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.