RW Oberhausen U19 1–0 Paderborn U19: Result & Stats

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paderborn U19

M. Matthes 50'

11/27/2021

U19 Bundesliga · West - 8Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1935%

×Draw22%

Paderborn U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchPaderborn U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.88

RW Oberhausen U19

1.68

Paderborn U19

1.88

Paderborn U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 60 away

1.58

creates per match

2.15

1.60

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.58

Paderborn U19

2.15

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Paderborn U19

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Paderborn U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

57%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Paderborn U19

78%

Draw or Paderborn U19

65%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

17%

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

81%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

50%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

24%

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

85%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

56%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

45%

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Paderborn U19 away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.68

Paderborn U19 attack 2.15 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

35%

level

22%

Paderborn U19 scores more

43%

Paderborn U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

M. Matthes

58'

M. Biondic← Z. Plavčić

63'

Y. Kazantzidis← J. Cartus

65'

65'

70'

77'

84'

A. Ozgen

84'

A. Ozgen

86'

A. de Nittis← M. Schettke

90+4'

K. Harbering← K. Skolik

RW

Paderborn

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Kaya

63'▲Y. Kazantzidis←▼J. Cartus

70'▲N. Redam←▼B. Bartu

77'▲A. Özgen←▼M. Bank

90+4'▲K. Harbering←▼K. Skolik

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

KazantzidisRedamÖzgenHarberingDierKarakılıçWaschkau

Manager: B. Wiesner

58'▲M. Biondic←▼Z. Plavčić

65'▲M. Sayin←▼S. Struck

65'▲Ö. Koz←▼J. Zambrano

86'▲A. de Nittis←▼M. Schettke

Paderborn U19 substitutes

BiondicSayinKozNittisPrietoNeesenWilleke

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 1–0 Paderborn U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Paderborn U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on November 27, 2021.

Goals: M. Matthes (50').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Paderborn U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 1–0 Paderborn U19