Paderborn U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Paderborn U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

A. Marino 51'

K. Yalcin 8'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Paderborn U1959%

×Draw20%

RW Oberhausen U1921%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Paderborn U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.26

Paderborn U19

2.21

RW Oberhausen U19

1.26

Paderborn U19 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 49 away

2.34

creates per match

1.20

1.32

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Paderborn U19

2.34

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Paderborn U19

1.32

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Paderborn U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Paderborn U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Paderborn U19 or draw

79%

Paderborn U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

80%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

41%

Winning margin

Paderborn U19 wins by 2+

36%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Paderborn U19 1+ goals

89%

Paderborn U19 2+ goals

65%

Paderborn U19 3+ goals

38%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

72%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

36%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Paderborn U19 (draw refunded)

73%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Paderborn U19 at home — creates 2.34, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Paderborn U19 attack 2.34 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.21

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Paderborn U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Paderborn U19 scores more

59%

level

20%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

21%

Paderborn U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Paderborn U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

T. Simakis← J. Symalla

8'

K. Yalcin

51'

A. Marino

65'

A. Sancarbarlaz← T. Simakis

65'

E. Özat← E. Hadzibajramovic

68'

E. Delifer← A. Marino

68'

N. Mrosek← J. Zambrano

77'

L. Twumasi← F. Geißler

77'

T. Böhm← J. Mulamba

81'

M. Kaya← G. Pollio

81'

Ö. Koz← P. Kohlstädt

Paderborn

RW

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Marino

Plavčić

Ansah

Manager: D. Schmitt

68'▲E. Delifer←▼A. Marino

68'▲N. Mrosek←▼J. Zambrano

81'▲M. Kaya←▼G. Pollio

81'▲Ö. Koz←▼P. Kohlstädt

Paderborn U19 substitutes

DeliferMrosekKayaKozKernerErmolaevBalzukat

Manager: M. Kaya

8'▲T. Simakis←▼J. Symalla

65'▲A. Sancarbarlaz←▼T. Simakis

65'▲E. Özat←▼E. Hadzibajramovic

77'▲L. Twumasi←▼F. Geißler

77'▲T. Böhm←▼J. Mulamba

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

SimakisSancarbarlazÖzatTwumasiBöhmHennemannPlath

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19

Paderborn U19 and RW Oberhausen U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: K. Yalcin (8'), A. Marino (51').

The match was played at Trainings- und Nachwuchsleistungszentrum Platz 4 in Paderborn.

Paderborn U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Paderborn U19 1–1 RW Oberhausen U19