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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Meppen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Meppen U19
Meppen U19
B. Suri 44'
E. Varol 37'
L. Thöle 81'
9/7/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 4Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1947%
×Draw21%
Meppen U1931%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
2.06
Meppen U19
1.65

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 51 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.58
Meppen U19
1.69

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
Meppen U19
2.55

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
69%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Meppen U19
79%
Draw or Meppen U19
53%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
27%
Meppen U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
87%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
61%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
34%
Meppen U19 1+ goals
81%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
49%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
60%
Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.06

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
47%
level
21%
Meppen U19 scores more
31%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
E. Varol
44'
B. Suri
81'
L. Thöle
RW
Meppen
M. Terranova
Manager: M. Terranova
C. Stammermann
Manager: C. Stammermann

RW Oberhausen U19 2 – 1 Meppen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Meppen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 7, 2025.

Goals: E. Varol (37'), B. Suri (44'), L. Thöle (81').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.