RW Oberhausen U19 2–0 Heidenheim U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Heidenheim U19

K. Harbering 89'

D. Burghard 22'

5/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League A - 2Kunstrasen Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1937%

×Draw23%

Heidenheim U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchHeidenheim U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.67

RW Oberhausen U19

1.62

Heidenheim U19

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 70 away

1.65

creates per match

1.64

1.69

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.65

Heidenheim U19

1.64

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.69

Heidenheim U19

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Heidenheim U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Heidenheim U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

61%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Heidenheim U19

77%

Draw or Heidenheim U19

63%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

18%

Heidenheim U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

80%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

48%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

22%

Heidenheim U19 1+ goals

81%

Heidenheim U19 2+ goals

50%

Heidenheim U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Heidenheim U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.69 · 49 matches

Heidenheim U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.59 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.65 + Heidenheim U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.62

Heidenheim U19 attack 1.64 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

37%

level

23%

Heidenheim U19 scores more

39%

Heidenheim U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Heidenheim U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

46'

46'

46'

46'

T. Spitzlberger← L. Janes

60'

T. König← C. Negele

68'

E. Hadzibajramovic← J. Symalla

68'

L. Twumasi← E. Özat

79'

D. Winter← T. Böhm

89'

K. Harbering

90+1'

J. Mulamba← F. Geißler

RW

Heidenheim

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Balk

68'▲E. Hadzibajramovic←▼J. Symalla

68'▲L. Twumasi←▼E. Özat

79'▲D. Winter←▼T. Böhm

90+1'▲J. Mulamba←▼F. Geißler

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

HadzibajramovicTwumasiWinterMulambaWigger

Manager: T. Fahrion

46'▲A. Üstün←▼J. Berner

46'▲L. Mignano←▼A. Paul

46'▲F. Aliqki←▼I. Music

46'▲T. Spitzlberger←▼L. Janes

60'▲T. König←▼C. Negele

Heidenheim U19 substitutes

ÜstünMignanoAliqkiSpitzlbergerKönigSchilke

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–0 Heidenheim U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Heidenheim U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 13, 2023.

Goals: D. Burghard (22'), K. Harbering (89').

The match was played at Kunstrasen Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Heidenheim U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: RW Oberhausen U19 2–0 Heidenheim U19