RW Oberhausen U19 1–0 Fortuna Köln U19

RW Oberhausen U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Köln U19

S. Topsu 47'

9/17/2017

U19 Bundesliga · West - 6Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1957%

×Draw21%

Fortuna Köln U1922%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RW Oberhausen U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

1.20

RW Oberhausen U19

2.07

Fortuna Köln U19

1.20

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 72% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 28 away

1.64

creates per match

0.79

1.60

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.64

Fortuna Köln U19

0.79

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19

1.60

Fortuna Köln U19

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Fortuna Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw

78%

RW Oberhausen U19 or Fortuna Köln U19

79%

Draw or Fortuna Köln U19

43%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

34%

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

87%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

61%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

34%

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

70%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

34%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

72%

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

Fortuna Köln U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 0.79 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

57%

level

21%

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

D. Tasli← E. Özen

47'

S. Topsu

52'

C. Köppen← P. Gurk

60'

H. Akcakaya← T. Pelzer

60'

J. Spellerberg← Pedro DAscenzi

83'

J. Helfer← F. Fisch

85'

B. Bamidele← N. Koppitz

88'

A. Aris← S. Topsu

90+1'

T. Petrakis← R. Rexha

RW

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Pappas

52'▲C. Köppen←▼P. Gurk

83'▲J. Helfer←▼F. Fisch

88'▲A. Aris←▼S. Topsu

90+1'▲T. Petrakis←▼R. Rexha

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

KöppenHelferArisPetrakisCumboBuerAvdijaj

Manager: G. Elizbarashvili

32'▲D. Tasli←▼E. Özen

60'▲H. Akcakaya←▼T. Pelzer

60'▲J. Spellerberg←▼Pedro DAscenzi

85'▲B. Bamidele←▼N. Koppitz

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

TasliAkcakayaSpellerbergBamideleMortadaRefaiKametas

Match Recap: RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 1-0 in U19 Bundesliga on September 17, 2017.

Goals: S. Topsu (47').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.

RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: RW Oberhausen U19 vs Fortuna Köln U19