Fortuna Köln U19 1–3 RW Oberhausen U19

Fortuna Köln U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

H. Refai 25'

J. Herbstsommer 90+2', 88', 85'

2/24/2018

U19 Bundesliga · West - 19Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fortuna Köln U1932%

×Draw21%

RW Oberhausen U1947%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna Köln U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.07

Fortuna Köln U19

1.70

RW Oberhausen U19

2.07

RW Oberhausen U19 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 48 away

1.36

creates per match

1.21

2.93

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Fortuna Köln U19

1.36

RW Oberhausen U19

1.21

allows per match

Fortuna Köln U19

2.93

RW Oberhausen U19

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fortuna Köln U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Köln U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Fortuna Köln U19 or draw

53%

Fortuna Köln U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

79%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

68%

Winning margin

Fortuna Köln U19 wins by 2+

16%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fortuna Köln U19 1+ goals

82%

Fortuna Köln U19 2+ goals

51%

Fortuna Köln U19 3+ goals

24%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

87%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

61%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Köln U19 (draw refunded)

41%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Köln U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.93 · 28 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.04 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Köln U19 attack 1.36 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.70

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.21 + Fortuna Köln U19 defence 2.93 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fortuna Köln U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

47%

RW Oberhausen U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "RW Oberhausen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

46'

68'

71'

71'

J. Herbstsommer← J. Helfer

77'

82'

85'

86'

88'

90+2'

Fortuna

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Walocha

71'▲R. Jemili←▼A. Sürü

82'▲M. Cicek←▼A. Koljic

86'▲E. Özen←▼N. Ochojski

Fortuna Köln U19 substitutes

JemiliCicekÖzenKhvedelidzeMortadaThobenMaletzki

Manager: D. Pappas

46'▲A. Aris←▼P. Wagner

68'▲S. Topsu←▼K. Sengün

71'▲J. Herbstsommer←▼J. Helfer

77'▲C. Köppen←▼R. Rexha

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

ArisTopsuHerbstsommerKöppenBuerHaferkornPetrakis

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 1–3 RW Oberhausen U19

RW Oberhausen U19 beat Fortuna Köln U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 24, 2018.

Goals: H. Refai (25'), J. Herbstsommer (85', 88', 90+2').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz Jean-Löring-Sportpark in Köln.

Fortuna Köln U19 vs RW Oberhausen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Fortuna Köln U19 1–3 RW Oberhausen U19