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Ružomberok W vs Trenčín W — I Liga - Women 2020

Ružomberok W
Ružomberok W
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Trenčín W
Trenčín W
11/2/2024I Liga - WomenI Liga - Women · Round 12Umelá Tráva Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Ružomberok W66%
×Draw16%
Trenčín W17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ružomberok W
3.01
Trenčín W
1.53

Ružomberok W creates 97% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ružomberok W
2.48
Trenčín W
1.64

allows per match

Ružomberok W
1.43
Trenčín W
3.55

finishing

Ružomberok W+0.00on par
Trenčín W+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok W ↓

Trenčín W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Ružomberok W or draw
83%
Ružomberok W or Trenčín W
84%
Draw or Trenčín W
34%

Winning margin

Ružomberok W wins by 2+
47%
Trenčín W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ružomberok W 1+ goals
95%
Ružomberok W 2+ goals
80%
Ružomberok W 3+ goals
56%
Trenčín W 1+ goals
78%
Trenčín W 2+ goals
45%
Trenčín W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok W (draw refunded)
79%
Trenčín W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok W at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.43 · 65 matches

Trenčín W away — creates 1.64, concedes 3.55 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok W attack 2.48 + Trenčín W defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 3.01

Trenčín W attack 1.64 + Ružomberok W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Ružomberok W scores more
66%
level
16%
Trenčín W scores more
17%

Ružomberok W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Ružomberok W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga - Women: Ružomberok W 5–1 Trenčín W

Ružomberok W beat Trenčín W 5-1 in I Liga - Women on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Umelá Tráva Ružomberok in Ružomberok.