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Ružomberok vs Zaglebie Sosnowiec — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ružomberok
Ružomberok
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Umelá Tráva Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Ružomberok57%
×Draw19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ružomberok
2.59
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
1.67

Ružomberok creates 55% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 6 away

creates per match

Ružomberok
2.36
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.17

allows per match

Ružomberok
1.18
Zaglebie Sosnowiec
2.83

finishing

Ružomberok+0.00on par
Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Ružomberok or draw
76%
Ružomberok or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
81%
Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec
43%

Winning margin

Ružomberok wins by 2+
37%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ružomberok 1+ goals
92%
Ružomberok 2+ goals
73%
Ružomberok 3+ goals
47%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals
81%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals
50%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok (draw refunded)
70%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.18 · 11 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok attack 2.36 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.59

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 2.17 + Ružomberok defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ružomberok scores more
57%
level
19%
Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more
24%

Ružomberok at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ružomberok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ružomberok 2–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Ružomberok beat Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Umelá Tráva Ružomberok in Ružomberok.