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Ružomberok II vs Slavoj Trebišov — 2. liga 2019

Ružomberok II
Ružomberok II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Slavoj Trebišov
Slavoj Trebišov
8/25/20192. liga2. liga · Round 6Futbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Ružomberok II45%
×Draw23%
Slavoj Trebišov33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ružomberok II
1.84
Slavoj Trebišov
1.54

Ružomberok II creates 19% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 69 away

creates per match

Ružomberok II
1.67
Slavoj Trebišov
0.97

allows per match

Ružomberok II
2.11
Slavoj Trebišov
2.01

finishing

Ružomberok II+0.00on par
Slavoj Trebišov+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ružomberok II ↓

Slavoj Trebišov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Ružomberok II or draw
67%
Ružomberok II or Slavoj Trebišov
77%
Draw or Slavoj Trebišov
55%

Winning margin

Ružomberok II wins by 2+
24%
Slavoj Trebišov wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ružomberok II 1+ goals
84%
Ružomberok II 2+ goals
55%
Ružomberok II 3+ goals
28%
Slavoj Trebišov 1+ goals
79%
Slavoj Trebišov 2+ goals
45%
Slavoj Trebišov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ružomberok II (draw refunded)
58%
Slavoj Trebišov (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ružomberok II at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

Slavoj Trebišov away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ružomberok II attack 1.67 + Slavoj Trebišov defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.84

Slavoj Trebišov attack 0.97 + Ružomberok II defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ružomberok II scores more
45%
level
23%
Slavoj Trebišov scores more
33%

Ružomberok II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ružomberok II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. liga: Ružomberok II 2–1 Slavoj Trebišov

Ružomberok II beat Slavoj Trebišov 2-1 in 2. liga on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Ružomberok in Ružomberok.