Rutsiro 1–0 Etoile de l'Est: Result & Stats

Rutsiro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Etoile de l'Est

4/15/2022

National Soccer League · Round 23Stade Umuganda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rutsiro44%

×Draw28%

Etoile de l'Est28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RutsiroExpected goals in this matchEtoile de l'Est

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Rutsiro

1.29

Etoile de l'Est

0.96

Rutsiro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 30 away

0.91

creates per match

0.70

1.23

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Rutsiro

0.91

Etoile de l'Est

0.70

allows per match

Rutsiro

1.23

Etoile de l'Est

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rutsiro+0.00on par

Etoile de l'Est+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rutsiro ↓

Etoile de l'Est →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rutsiro or draw

72%

Rutsiro or Etoile de l'Est

72%

Draw or Etoile de l'Est

56%

Winning margin

Rutsiro wins by 2+

20%

Etoile de l'Est wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rutsiro 1+ goals

72%

Rutsiro 2+ goals

37%

Rutsiro 3+ goals

14%

Etoile de l'Est 1+ goals

62%

Etoile de l'Est 2+ goals

25%

Etoile de l'Est 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Rutsiro (draw refunded)

61%

Etoile de l'Est (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rutsiro at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.23 · 69 matches

Etoile de l'Est away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rutsiro attack 0.91 + Etoile de l'Est defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.29

Etoile de l'Est attack 0.70 + Rutsiro defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rutsiro scores more

44%

level

28%

Etoile de l'Est scores more

28%

Rutsiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rutsiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Soccer League: Rutsiro 1–0 Etoile de l'Est

Rutsiro beat Etoile de l'Est 1-0 in National Soccer League on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Umuganda in Gisenyi.

Rutsiro vs Etoile de l'Est — National Soccer League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

National Soccer League: Rutsiro 1–0 Etoile de l'Est