Rutherglen Glencairn 2–4 Newtongrange Star

Rutherglen Glencairn

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 0

Newtongrange Star

8/30/2025

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundHamish B. Allan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rutherglen Glencairn26%

×Draw19%

Newtongrange Star55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rutherglen GlencairnExpected goals in this matchNewtongrange Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

2.50

Rutherglen Glencairn

1.70

Newtongrange Star

2.50

Newtongrange Star creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

3.00

2.00

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Rutherglen Glencairn

2.00

Newtongrange Star

3.00

allows per match

Rutherglen Glencairn

2.00

Newtongrange Star

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rutherglen Glencairn+0.00on par

Newtongrange Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rutherglen Glencairn ↓

Newtongrange Star →

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Rutherglen Glencairn or draw

45%

Rutherglen Glencairn or Newtongrange Star

81%

Draw or Newtongrange Star

74%

Winning margin

Rutherglen Glencairn wins by 2+

12%

Newtongrange Star wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Rutherglen Glencairn 1+ goals

82%

Rutherglen Glencairn 2+ goals

51%

Rutherglen Glencairn 3+ goals

24%

Newtongrange Star 1+ goals

92%

Newtongrange Star 2+ goals

71%

Newtongrange Star 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Rutherglen Glencairn (draw refunded)

32%

Newtongrange Star (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rutherglen Glencairn at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Newtongrange Star away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rutherglen Glencairn attack 2.00 + Newtongrange Star defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Newtongrange Star attack 3.00 + Rutherglen Glencairn defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rutherglen Glencairn scores more

26%

level

19%

Newtongrange Star scores more

55%

Newtongrange Star at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Newtongrange Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff