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Rutherglen Glencairn vs Lothian Hutchison — FA Cup 2019

Rutherglen Glencairn
Rutherglen Glencairn
FT
2 – 0
Lothian Hutchison
Lothian Hutchison
8/31/2024FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundHamish B. Allan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Rutherglen Glencairn45%
×Draw21%
Lothian Hutchison34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
1.72

Rutherglen Glencairn creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
1.44

allows per match

Rutherglen Glencairn
2.00
Lothian Hutchison
2.00

finishing

Rutherglen Glencairn+0.00on par
Lothian Hutchison+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rutherglen Glencairn ↓

Lothian Hutchison →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rutherglen Glencairn or draw
66%
Rutherglen Glencairn or Lothian Hutchison
79%
Draw or Lothian Hutchison
55%

Winning margin

Rutherglen Glencairn wins by 2+
25%
Lothian Hutchison wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rutherglen Glencairn 1+ goals
86%
Rutherglen Glencairn 2+ goals
59%
Rutherglen Glencairn 3+ goals
32%
Lothian Hutchison 1+ goals
82%
Lothian Hutchison 2+ goals
51%
Lothian Hutchison 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rutherglen Glencairn (draw refunded)
57%
Lothian Hutchison (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rutherglen Glencairn at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Lothian Hutchison away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rutherglen Glencairn attack 2.00 + Lothian Hutchison defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Lothian Hutchison attack 1.44 + Rutherglen Glencairn defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rutherglen Glencairn scores more
45%
level
21%
Lothian Hutchison scores more
34%

Rutherglen Glencairn at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rutherglen Glencairn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rutherglen Glencairn vs Lothian Hutchison

Rutherglen Glencairn beat Lothian Hutchison 2-0 in FA Cup on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Hamish B. Allan Stadium in Glasgow.