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Rustavi vs Shturmi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Rustavi
Rustavi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shturmi
Shturmi
8/17/2024Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 20Teknikuri Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Rustavi53%
×Draw25%
Shturmi22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rustavi
1.57
Shturmi
0.92

Rustavi creates 71% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rustavi
1.72
Shturmi
0.86

allows per match

Rustavi
0.97
Shturmi
1.43

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par
Shturmi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Shturmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw
78%
Rustavi or Shturmi
75%
Draw or Shturmi
47%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+
27%
Shturmi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals
79%
Rustavi 2+ goals
46%
Rustavi 3+ goals
21%
Shturmi 1+ goals
60%
Shturmi 2+ goals
23%
Shturmi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)
70%
Shturmi (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Shturmi away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.72 + Shturmi defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Shturmi attack 0.86 + Rustavi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rustavi scores more
53%
level
25%
Shturmi scores more
22%

Rustavi at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Rustavi 1–0 Shturmi

Rustavi beat Shturmi 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Teknikuri Tsentri in Rustavi.