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Rustavi vs Shakhtar Donetsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Rustavi
Rustavi
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Shakhtar Donetsk
Kaua Elias 90', 45'
Y. Nazaryna 64'
2/13/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rustavi18%
×Draw20%
Shakhtar Donetsk62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rustavi
1.05
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.13

Shakhtar Donetsk creates 103% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rustavi
1.20
Shakhtar Donetsk
2.45

allows per match

Rustavi
1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk
0.91

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par
Shakhtar Donetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Shakhtar Donetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw
38%
Rustavi or Shakhtar Donetsk
80%
Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk
82%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+
6%
Shakhtar Donetsk wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals
65%
Rustavi 2+ goals
28%
Rustavi 3+ goals
9%
Shakhtar Donetsk 1+ goals
88%
Shakhtar Donetsk 2+ goals
63%
Shakhtar Donetsk 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)
22%
Shakhtar Donetsk (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Shakhtar Donetsk away — creates 2.45, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.20 + Shakhtar Donetsk defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Shakhtar Donetsk attack 2.45 + Rustavi defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Rustavi scores more
18%
level
20%
Shakhtar Donetsk scores more
62%

Shakhtar Donetsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shakhtar Donetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Kaua Elias
64'
Y. Nazaryna
90'
Kaua Elias
Rustavi
Shakhtar
Varlam Kilasonia
Manager: Varlam Kilasonia
Arda Turan
Manager: Arda Turan

Match Recap: Rustavi vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Rustavi 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on February 13, 2026.

Goals: Kaua Elias (45', 90'), Y. Nazaryna (64').