Rustavi 3–2 Merani Martvili: Result & Stats

Rustavi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Merani Martvili

L. Kutalia 86' (pen)

L. Tsotsonava 39'

Y. Nakano 35'

B. Laghadze 73'

J. Esonkulov 21'

3/9/2025

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 1Poladi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Rustavi50%

×Draw24%

Merani Martvili25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RustaviExpected goals in this matchMerani Martvili

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

1.12

Rustavi

1.68

Merani Martvili

1.12

Rustavi creates 50% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 83 away

1.72

creates per match

1.27

0.97

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Rustavi

1.72

Merani Martvili

1.27

allows per match

Rustavi

0.97

Merani Martvili

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Merani Martvili →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw

75%

Rustavi or Merani Martvili

76%

Draw or Merani Martvili

50%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+

27%

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals

81%

Rustavi 2+ goals

50%

Rustavi 3+ goals

24%

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

67%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

31%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)

66%

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.72, concedes 0.97 · 71 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.72 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.68

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Rustavi defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rustavi scores more

50%

level

24%

Merani Martvili scores more

25%

Rustavi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Esonkulov↳ Z. Sikharulia

35'

Y. Nakano↳ L. Tsotsonava

39'

L. Tsotsonava↳ Y. Nakano

57'

D. Khorava← L. Kadaria

57'

I. Shonia← M. Mushkudiani

68'

L. Chaladze← G. Gvishiani

73'

B. Laghadze↳ L. Chaladze

77'

D. Samurkasovi← Z. Sichinava

77'

R. Odishelidze← S. Kessi

77'

M. Kapanadze← R. Chachua

85'

D. Khorava

86'

L. KutaliaPenalty

88'

T. Guliashvili← L. Tsotsonava

90+1'

G. Jalaghonia← Y. Nakano

90+1'

A. Jolokhava← Z. Sikharulia

90+1'

S. Tsulaia← R. Khalimbekov

Rustavi

Merani

1

Khamkhoev

29

Khaymanov

2

▼

Gvishiani

5

▼

Khalimbek

3

Latsabidz

11

Ugrekheli

8

▼

Kadaria

22

▼

Mushkudia

10

A

▼

Sikharuli

33

⚽

Laghadze

7

⚽

Esonkulov

29

Shovnadze

2

▼

3

40

25

6

▼

Sichinava

7

⚽A

▼

Tsotsonav

8

Kakashvil

22

⚽A

▼

Nakano

11

▼

Kessi

19

⚽

Kutalia

Manager: G. Tsetsadze

77'▲D. Samurkasovi←▼Z. Sichinava

77'▲R. Odishelidze←▼S. Kessi

77'▲M. Kapanadze←▼R. Chachua

88'▲T. Guliashvili←▼L. Tsotsonava

90+1'▲G. Jalaghonia←▼Y. Nakano

Rustavi substitutes

1Kardava10Samurkasovi13Gujabidze14Jalaghonia18Japaridze20Dobranskyi24Odishelidze27Kapanadze28Guliashvili

Manager: G. Khelaia

57'▲D. Khorava←▼L. Kadaria

57'▲I. Shonia←▼M. Mushkudiani

68'▲L. Chaladze←▼G. Gvishiani

90+1'▲A. Jolokhava←▼Z. Sikharulia

90+1'▲S. Tsulaia←▼R. Khalimbekov

Merani Martvili substitutes

23Lomidze9Jolokhava18Tsulaia19Khorava26Shonia30Bolotashvili35Chaladze