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Rustavi vs Chikhura Sachkhere — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Rustavi
Rustavi
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
8/6/2019Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 22Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Rustavi45%
×Draw27%
Chikhura Sachkhere28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rustavi
1.40
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.04

Rustavi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rustavi
1.22
Chikhura Sachkhere
0.93

allows per match

Rustavi
1.15
Chikhura Sachkhere
1.57

finishing

Rustavi+0.00on par
Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rustavi ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rustavi or draw
72%
Rustavi or Chikhura Sachkhere
73%
Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere
55%

Winning margin

Rustavi wins by 2+
22%
Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rustavi 1+ goals
75%
Rustavi 2+ goals
41%
Rustavi 3+ goals
17%
Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
65%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
28%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rustavi (draw refunded)
62%
Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rustavi at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rustavi attack 1.22 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.40

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.93 + Rustavi defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rustavi scores more
45%
level
27%
Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
28%

Rustavi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Rustavi 1–0 Chikhura Sachkhere

Rustavi beat Chikhura Sachkhere 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on August 6, 2019.

The match was played at Teknikuri Tsentri (Rustavi).