Chikhura Sachkhere 2–0 Rustavi: Result & Stats

Chikhura Sachkhere

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rustavi

3/22/2021

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 4Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere23%

×Draw21%

Rustavi56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chikhura SachkhereExpected goals in this matchRustavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

2.04

Chikhura Sachkhere

1.24

Rustavi

2.04

Rustavi creates 65% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 71 away

0.89

creates per match

1.24

2.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.89

Rustavi

1.24

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere

2.83

Rustavi

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Rustavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Rustavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw

44%

Chikhura Sachkhere or Rustavi

79%

Draw or Rustavi

77%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

9%

Rustavi wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

71%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

35%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

13%

Rustavi 1+ goals

87%

Rustavi 2+ goals

60%

Rustavi 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

29%

Rustavi (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

Rustavi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + Rustavi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rustavi attack 1.24 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

23%

level

21%

Rustavi scores more

56%

Rustavi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rustavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff