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Russia W vs Kenya W — Friendlies Women 2026

Russia W
Russia W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kenya W
Kenya W
K. Komissarova 80'
V. Bizenkova 57'
V. Kuropatkina 13'
E. Shesterneva 7'
10/26/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Russia W64%
×Draw21%
Kenya W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Russia W
1.98
Kenya W
0.83

Russia W creates 139% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Russia W
2.05
Kenya W
1.08

allows per match

Russia W
0.58
Kenya W
1.92

finishing

Russia W+0.00on par
Kenya W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia W ↓

Kenya W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Russia W or draw
85%
Russia W or Kenya W
79%
Draw or Kenya W
36%

Winning margin

Russia W wins by 2+
39%
Kenya W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Russia W 1+ goals
86%
Russia W 2+ goals
59%
Russia W 3+ goals
31%
Kenya W 1+ goals
56%
Kenya W 2+ goals
20%
Kenya W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Russia W (draw refunded)
81%
Kenya W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia W at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.58 · 19 matches

Kenya W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia W attack 2.05 + Kenya W defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.98

Kenya W attack 1.08 + Russia W defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Russia W scores more
64%
level
21%
Kenya W scores more
15%

Russia W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Russia W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
E. Shesterneva
13'
V. Kuropatkina
15'
V. Makokha
46'
L. Gira← L. Gira
46'
B. Achieng← B. Achieng
46'
M. Roby← M. Roby
46'
M. Onyango← M. Onyango
46'
F. Kwamboka← F. Kwamboka
46'
P. Hasiala← P. Hasiala
46'
A. Shkalova← A. Shkalova
46'
M. Zharkova← M. Zharkova
46'
K. Dzhinikashvili← K. Dzhinikashvili
56'
N. Mashina← V. Bizenkova
56'
A. Abdullina← K. Dolgova
57'
V. Bizenkova
72'
I. Pleshkova← I. Pleshkova
79'
P. Alukwe← P. Alukwe
80'
K. Komissarova
90'
L. Akoth← L. Akoth
90'
A. Arusi← A. Arusi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Russia W vs Kenya W

Russia W beat Kenya W 4-0 in Friendlies Women on October 26, 2024.

Goals: E. Shesterneva (7'), V. Kuropatkina (13'), V. Bizenkova (57'), K. Komissarova (80').

The match was played at Arslan Zeki Demirci Spor Kompleksi Stadyumu in Side.