Russia 1–1 Nigeria: Result & Stats | Friendlies

Russia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Nigeria

Semi Ajayi 27' (OG)

Tolu Arokodare 71'

6/6/2025

Friendlies · Friendlies 1Luzhniki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Russia63%

×Draw20%

Nigeria16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RussiaExpected goals in this matchNigeria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

0.96

Russia

2.09

Nigeria

0.96

Russia creates 118% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 21 away

2.52

creates per match

1.00

0.92

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Russia

2.52

Nigeria

1.00

allows per match

Russia

0.92

Nigeria

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Russia+0.00on par

Nigeria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Russia ↓

Nigeria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Russia or draw

84%

Russia or Nigeria

80%

Draw or Nigeria

37%

Winning margin

Russia wins by 2+

39%

Nigeria wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Russia 1+ goals

88%

Russia 2+ goals

62%

Russia 3+ goals

34%

Nigeria 1+ goals

62%

Nigeria 2+ goals

25%

Nigeria 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Russia (draw refunded)

79%

Nigeria (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Russia at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

Nigeria away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Russia attack 2.52 + Nigeria defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.09

Nigeria attack 1.00 + Russia defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Russia scores more

63%

level

20%

Nigeria scores more

16%

Russia at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Russia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Danil Krugovoy

Russia · D

7.9

Match Events

19'

Maksim Osipenko

27'

Semi AjayiOwn goal

46'

Lechi Sadulaev← Andrey Mostovoy

55'

Bruno Onyemaechi

61'

Yaroslav Gladyshev← Maksim Glushenkov

61'

Dmitriy Barinov← Anton Miranchuk

61'

Tolu Arokodare← Victor Okoh Boniface

68'

Ivan Sergeev← Nikolay Komlichenko

68'

Arsen Adamov← Ilya Vakhaniya

71'

Tolu Arokodare

76'

Olakunle Olusegun← Christantus Uche

84'

Daniil Glebov

86'

Matvey Kislyak← Daniil Glebov

90+5'

Aleksey Batrakov

90'

Igoh Ogbu← Fisayo Dele-Bashiru

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RussiaNigeria

Overview

57%Possession43%

10Total Shots6

4Corners4

16Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots6

2On Target4

7Off Target2

1Blocked0

9Inside Box4

1Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

497Total Passes367

435Accurate Passes300

88%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3